New demographic analysis of school-age population projects increased diversity and a lessening of social and cultural differences

Demography, may not, as the famed French philosopher Auguste Comte once wrote, “be destiny,” but two new analyses, a demographic simulation of the school-age population of the United States and a projection of the racially-identified American Indian and Alaska Native population to 2050, make clear that rapid changes in the racial and ethnic composition of the population have and will continue to reshape the nation, with significant implications for education and the future of civil rights. 

Conducted by a team of researchers working with the Civil Rights Project/Proyecto Derechos Civiles at UCLA, the first new study, “The Changing Racial and Ethnic Composition of the School-Age Population in the U.S.,” details the rapid changes that have occurred in the wake of decades of sustained large scale immigration, outlining the changes schools and educators can anticipate over the next three decades.

Using a micro-simulation model that assumes the continuation of recent population dynamics, including fertility, mortality and migration trends, the research projects growing diversity across most places in the country, and a lessening of social and cultural differences between racial and ethnic groups.

The analysis also makes clear that reducing immigration in the future will not change these trends.

“Changes in immigration -- even if reduced to zero -- would not alter this future.  The nation's racial and ethnic diversity is already ‘baked in,’” contends Jennifer Van Hook, lead author of the research and Professor at the Pennsylvania State University.  “Most Hispanic and Asian children are U.S.-born citizens, and they will be the parents of an increasing share of America's children in the future.”

 “This paper shows that we are on the path to much more diversity in much of the nation and leaders everywhere will need to observe and consider policies for dealing successfully in a more diverse context,” adds Gary Orfield, co-director of the UCLA Civil Rights Project. “These changes will have a significant impact and this research offers important information for thinking about the future of education and social, economic, and civil rights policies.” 

The research projects:

·       A majority-minority patchwork among American school-age youth. By 2050, non-Hispanic White children are projected to comprise 42% of the population age 5-17, Hispanics 29%, Blacks 17%, Asians and Pacific Islanders 7%, and children with multiracial or other identities 4%. 

·       Geographic spread of racial and ethnic heterogeneity. Racial and ethnic heterogeneity – or diversity -- is projected to increase the most in areas with lower levels of heterogeneity in 2020 

·       Reductions in the number and share of children of immigrants. The number of first- or second-generation school-age children is projected to decline between 2020 and 2050, dropping from 16.8 million to 11.4 million, 

·       Declines in non-English Home Language Use. The research projects substantial declines in the share of children speaking a non-English language at home, particularly among Hispanics (a 14 percentage-point drop from 58% to 44%) and Asian/PI children (a 7 percentage-point drop from 58% to 51%). 

·       Gains in Educational Attainment for Hispanics. Even in the absence of improvements in educational opportunities, Hispanic children are projected to experience gains in educational attainment. 

·       An Enduring Attainment Gap for Blacks If the existing trends continue there will be very little increase in college attainment for Black youth. 

An executive summary and full report, “The Changing Racial and Ethnic Composition of the School-Age Population in the U.S.,” are available online. 

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A Closer Look at the American Indian and Alaska Native Population

Taking a deeper dive into the changing demographics of the nation, the Civil Rights Project/Proyecto Derechos Civiles is publishing a second new study examining the American Indian and Alaska Native populations.

American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) people in the United States continue to face disproportionate challenges in health, education, employment, and housing.  To address these issues and build a civil rights agenda to meet AIAN needs requires plausible information about the future size, age structure, and locational distribution of the population.  The new research, “American Indian and Alaska Native Populations: Envisioning the Future,” by Carolyn A. Liebler of the University of Minnesota, attempts to provide some answers. 

While data collection practices present significant challenges to understanding the AIAN population, the report presents population projections of the racially-identified AIAN population from the present to 2050 using a traditional demographic method that has been modified to address data-related challenges. 

One key question of importance to addressing the civil rights of the AIAN population is how many people currently identify as racially American Indian or Alaska Native. The answer has a huge range depending on how AIAN is defined, and which data source is used. Because people can (and do) change their answer to race and ethnicity questions, net change in AIAN race responses impacts population measures.

·       If net response change continues in the next 30 years as it has in the past 50 years, the research projects the 2050 AIAN population to be about 23.9 million people, including an estimated 17 million non-Hispanic AIAN people. 

·       If the geographic distribution of AIAN people remains consistent to 2050, over one in eight AIAN people will live in a Tribal Area (13.7%, up from 13.4% in 2020); over one-quarter (27.9%) of Tribal Area residents will be minor children. 

·       Of the anticipated 6.6 million Hispanic AIAN people in 2050, few are projected to live in Tribal Areas such as reservations. Hispanic AIAN people are likely to continue to include a large minority of people with Indigenous heritage who were born outside the U.S. 

“Native people are too often simply left out in national studies and reports, and ignored in policymaking, leaving AIAN community members to face difficult and disproportionate challenges and tribal leaders and policymakers without the information they need to address critical issues in meaningful ways,” said Liebler.  “Tribal leaders also need high-quality data about their populations to govern.”

Unfortunately, the 2020 Census data are of limited use, creating serious problems with data equity for non-White and rural populations, including many AIAN people living in Tribal Areas. Most tribes do not have sufficient resources for gathering their own data.

The report offers policy recommendations to address data needs and issues to increase the quality of data collected about people living in tribal areas, including increasing the power of tribal leaders to participate in data collection. The Census Bureau could add a national survey similar to Statistics Canada’s Indigenous People’s Survey (IPS), address data disclosure and coding policies, and conduct analysis of the impact of their policies on data about AIAN people and Tribal Areas. The report also suggests the Census Bureau partner with tribal leaders to ensure that released data is as useful as possible. 

“As we set out in this series to understand and describe the civil rights challenges of the next 25 years, we are determined to include issues of American Indian and Alaska Native peoples,” concludes Gary Orfield of The Civil Rights Project.  “It is a complex situation, and understanding the data challenges and differing results, produced by using varying definitions of the Census findings is critical. This report is a strong first step to thinking about Native rights in the future.”

The recent Supreme Court decision ending affirmative action on the basis of race does not apply to Native American students, which Orfield believes is evidenced by the University of California’s recent policy for those enrolled in federally recognized tribes.

The full report, “American Indian and Alaska Native Populations: Envisioning the Future,” and executive summary are available online.

“The Changing Racial and Ethnic Composition of the School-Age Population in the U.S.,”  was co-authored by Jennifer Van Hook, Roy C. Buck Professor of Sociology and Demography at the Pennsylvania State University, and non-resident fellow at the Migration Policy Institute;  Alain Bélanger, Professor of Demography at the Quebec Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique in Montréal; Patrick Sabourin, a research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, and Nicholas Patoine Hamel, a demographer and statistician at United Nations ESCAP. “American Indian and Alaska Native Populations: Envisioning the Future,” is authored by Carolyn A. Liebler, an Associate Professor of Sociology and Faculty Affiliate of the Institute for Social Research and Data Innovation at the University of Minnesota-Twin Cities. 

Both papers are commissioned and published by The Civil Rights Project/Proyecto Derechos Civiles, UCLA, as part of its ongoing research series, A Civil Rights Agenda for the Next Quarter Century, in commemoration of the Project’s 25th anniversary.